Jay Goodman, Wheaton professor of political science, promised to look back after his many talks to Wheaton audiences this year and come clean. How did he fare in predicting the nominees for president and other political trends? Heather Corbett, director of alumnae/i relations, chatted with him about just that.

Jay Goodman: So here I am with a "mea culpa."  On balance, not so far off!
 
Heather Corbett: What was your biggest error?

Jay: I thought that Hillary Clinton was easily going to be the Democratic nominee.  Of course, so did everyone else including both her and probably Senator Obama himself.  Hindsight is always good.  There were some clues: Sen. Obama's 2002 speech against the war positioned him to get the support of antiwar Democrats, MoveOn.org, and the netroots.  That speech was no particular act of courage—he did not have to vote, he was a state senator from the very left-wing University of Chicago Hyde Park area.  But it worked to get him going.  And his campaign caught the national mood for change—not hard to see when, last fall, 60 percent or more thought the country was "on the wrong track." 

Some subsequent factors were less foreseeable.  Who knew the Clinton campaign would botch not only the national mood but also the nuts and bolts of Democratic Party rules and rationing expenditures?  And who foresaw the media sexism of Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, and Maureen Dowd?  Clinton thought women would support her as the first viable female candidate for president.  In the end, older women did but younger women did not.  On my Wheaton tours many grads told me that they wanted a woman, just not her, for various reasons.  In contrast to the inconstant support of many women, African-Americans from South Carolina onward went for Sen. Obama by almost 90 percent, taking the Clintons totally by surprise.  (They thought that their lifetime involvement in civil rights would earn them that support but it did not at all.) 

Had the timing of particular states been different or the rules been winner-take-all, as on the Republican side, Clinton would have won.  But Obama won fair and square with a brilliant campaign.  He put together the Gary Hart 1984 upper middle class NPR base, which also went for Bradley in 2000, with the African-American vote, and that was just enough.  Since 1984 this left-wing of the Democratic Party has grown and the blue-collar piece, which went for Clinton, has shrunk. 

Heather: Did you get the Republicans wrong too?

Jay: Not really.  Although Giuliani was way ahead, I could not see a path for him.  McCain was way down but I always expressed both my personal admiration for him and the belief that he was the strongest Republican, the only one with a chance in the general election.  I thought the Republicans would all run out of money, which they pretty much did. (I thought the Democrats would run out of money too but Sen. Obama did not.)

Heather: Well, what did you get right?

Jay: I said all along that this was a terrible year for the Republicans on every indicator.  On the long term metrics that political scientists use to predict presidential outcomes, they are a disaster.  The President's approval rating is so low it is close to or below Nixon's, post-1972.  According to most polls, close to 80 percent of the public thinks the country is "on the wrong track."  On the "generic presidential question"—do you want a Democrat or Republican to win—the Democrat wins by low double digits.   Democrats and Republicans were pretty much tied on party identification in 2000 and 2004.  Now the Democrats lead by high single digits (it had been up to a double-digit lead).  And on 10 or 11 specific issues, the Democrats are "closer to my point of view" on all but national security and protecting the country against terrorism.  The majority of the country hates the war in Iraq and wants troops out. The economy is a mess and who knows where the price of gas will top out. That was all true before and remains so.  But I also always said that Republicans should not be discouraged because McCain was always close, a few points behind or even a few points ahead occasionally, and that is true today.

Heather: Were you able to explain why McCain stayed close, and is that still true?

Jay: Yes.  He has always been popular with "Reagan Democrats" and many independents.  Those particular people tend to be white males and poorer older women.  No Democrat has won the white male vote since 1964 and that trend is not going to change for Sen. Obama.  Kerry and Gore won 36 percent of the white male vote.  Obama's strategy is to overcome that shortfall by inspiring much higher turnout among African-Americans and younger voters. 

Heather: Did you get anything else right?

Jay: I said that Democrats get nominated by running on the left of their party, which Obama did brilliantly, and then dashing to the center, which is he is doing every day as he throws overboard campaign financing, wiretapping, NAFTA reform, and gun control.  Watch for him to dump his Iraq withdrawal position as he "refines" his stand.

Heather: OK, are you willing to predict who will win in November?

Jay: I was never crazy enough to do that. I always said that I expected the election to be much like 2000 or 2004 because the underlying divisions are the same.  However, I said then and still think that the overall mood of the country and decay of the Republican brand and coalition gives a slight edge to the Democrats. Gov. Sarah Palin has recently energized the Republican base and the Republican "enthusiasm quotient" and made the race a more even match. Some pundits now think they will fight to a 269/269 Electoral College tie. I don't. I think one side will win but by very, very little.

Heather: Anything else?

Jay: I loved meeting with all the Wheaton alums and friends of the College all over the country and the world (Cape Cod, London, Moscow, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Manchester, Washington DC, New York, and Princeton plus Homecoming and Commencement on campus.). They were all very lively conversations.  So of course I'd be delighted to be invited back and talk some more. And meanwhile, I recommend that everyone follow the polls and the stories on RealClearPolitics.com.